Quantifying Uncertainties in Aviation Decarbonization Scenarios

Suzanne Salles joins ISA to model uncertainty propagation in scenario tools like AeroMAPS.

Aviation decarbonisation scenarios rely on highly uncertain assumptions: technology maturity, demand evolution, public policies, and action levers. How can we better quantify these uncertainties to strengthen confidence in projections?

Since June 1st, Suzanne Salles—supervised by François Gallard and Matthias De Lozzo (IRT Saint Exupéry) as well as Christian Gogu (ISAE-SUPAERO)—has been working on modeling uncertainties, their propagation in scenario tools (such as AeroMAPS), and the identification of key assumptions that drive results. The goal is to inform decisions with quantified confidence.

This 18-month post-doctoral project is funded by ISA (through a grant from the Occitanie Region).

Welcome to Suzanne as she joins the ISA teams as part of this collaboration with IRT Saint Exupéry!